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Saturday, October 30, 2004

Polls, Polls, Polls

.......Okay, this is my take on all the polling data out there...they are all off the mark! I strongly feel that the result on election day will be very, very different from the polls. I don't think it will be this close at all. Call it a hunch or what ever, but I know all or most of the poll result will be off on that day.

It could be because the voter of today is more informed than ever before. Sure there are some people out there who still are not aware of the issues, but the vast majority of voters are much more educated on the issues than ever before. Due to this fact, most people are not responding to the polling questions like they would have done pre 9/11. I do believe that most of the responses the pollsters are getting are not accurate responses from the voters. Since the voters are more informed than ever before, I get the feel that if they think a poll question is a trick question, they will deliberately give a wrong answer.

It also seems like each pollster is polling to get the result they want, not necessarily the right result. This is part of my explanation for huge difference in the poll result. How do you explain 5 pollsters polling Ohio for example and coming up with 5 very different results?

The best poll analysis of the election can be found at The Horserace Blog in my opinion.

2 Comments:

At 1:30 PM, Anonymous said...

Hello
i
Bye

 
At 7:16 AM, Anonymous said...

Hi
p
G'night

 

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